Publication date: Nov 06, 2019
Clinical outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS) are highly variable. We aim to determine the long-term clinical outcomes in MS, and to identify early prognostic features of these outcomes.
132 people presenting with a clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) were prospectively recruited between 1984-87, and followed up clinically and radiologically 1, 5, 10, 14, 20 and now 30 years later. All available notes and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans were reviewed, and MS was defined according to the 2010 McDonald criteria.
Clinical outcome data was obtained in 120 participants at 30 years. Eighty were known to have developed MS by 30 years. Expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores were available in 107 participants, of whom 77 had MS: thirty-two (42%) remained fully ambulatory (EDSS ≤3.5) all of whom had relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), three (4%) had RRMS and EDSS >3.5, 26 (34%) had secondary progressive MS (all had EDSS >3.5), and MS contributed to death in 16 (20%). Of those with MS, 11 have been treated with a DMT. The strongest early predictors (within 5 years of presentation) of secondary progressive MS (SPMS) at 30 years were presence of baseline infratentorial lesions and deep white matter lesions at one year.
Thirty years after onset, in a largely untreated cohort, there was a divergence of MS outcomes; some people accrued substantial disability early on, while others ran a more favourable long-term course. These outcomes could, in part, be predicted by radiological findings from within a year of first presentation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Chung, K.K., Altmann, D., Barkhof, F., Miszkiel, K., Brex, P.A., O’Riordan, J., Ebner, M., Prados, F., Cardoso, M.J., Vercauteren, T., Ourselin, S., Thompson, A., Ciccarelli, O., and Chard, D.T. A thirty year clinical and MRI observational study of multiple sclerosis and clinically isolated syndromes. 19437. 2019 Ann Neurol.