Combining fine-scale social contact data with epidemic modelling reveals interactions between contact tracing, quarantine, testing and physical distancing for controlling COVID-19

Combining fine-scale social contact data with epidemic modelling reveals interactions between contact tracing, quarantine, testing and physical distancing for controlling COVID-19

Publication date: May 26, 2020

Case isolation and contact tracing can contribute to the control of COVID-19 outbreaks. However, it remains unclear how real-world networks could influence the effectiveness and efficiency of such approaches. To address this issue, we simulated control strategies for SARS-CoV-2 in a real-world social network generated from high resolution GPS data. We found that tracing contacts-of-contacts reduced the size of simulated outbreaks more than tracing of only contacts, but resulted in almost one third of the local population being quarantined at a single point in time. Testing and releasing non-infectious individuals reduced the numbers of quarantined individuals without large increases in outbreak size, but high testing rates were required for this to be effective. Finally, if testing availability is constrained, we estimated that combining physical distancing with contact tracing could enable epidemic control while reducing the number of quarantined individuals. Our approach highlights the importance of network structure and social dynamics in evaluating the potential impact of SARS-CoV-2 control.

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Concepts Keywords
Asymptomatic Simulation simulated networks
BBC Importance network
Bernoulli Lattice networks
Binary Edges network
Bluetooth Rate movement network
Boston Rare social networks
Branching Process Relative real network
British Broadcasting Corporation 494495496497498499500501502503504505506507508509510511512513514515516517518519520real networks
Cambridge Real social network
Cap Simulated social systems
Clique Fine social networks
Clustering Degree null network
Clustering Coefficient Times null networks
Conservative Static social network
Contagion Larger social systems
Correlation Importance social network
Deol Match real network
Dyad Degree real network
Dyadic Pairwise contacts networks
Dyads Unclear real networks
East Anglia Insight network
Epidemic Correlation network
Epidemiological Health
False Negative Articles
GPS Medicine
Great Circle Infectious diseases
Harvard Epidemiology
Haslemere Prevention
Hygiene Public health
Immunology Epidemics
Infection Contact tracing
Lattice Quarantine
Leclerc Isolation
Location Parameter Adam
London Smartphone
Merton College GPS
Mobile Phone Cellular telephone
Network Simulation Simulation
Norwich Bluetooth
Oxford
Petra
Pharmaceutical
PPE
Privacy
Probability
Probability Density
Quarantine
Quarantining
Real Networks
Recording
Ring
Sampled
SARS
Shortest Paths
Simulation
Smartphone
Social Network
Social Networks
Sociality
Surrey
Susceptible Individual
Symptom
Test
Tully
Virus
Weibull
Weibull Distribution
Zandvoort

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease MESH Infectious Diseases
drug DRUGBANK Ademetionine
disease MESH social interactions
disease MESH infection
disease MESH privacy
disease MESH secondary infections
drug DRUGBANK Ranitidine
drug DRUGBANK Aspartame
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease MESH growth
disease MESH RAMP

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