Assessment of the impact of reopening strategies on the spatial transmission risk of COVID-19 based on a data-driven transmission model.

Publication date: Jul 10, 2023

COVID-19 has dramatically changed people’s mobility geste patterns and affected the operations of different functional spots. In the environment of the successful reopening of countries around the world since 2022, it’s pivotal to understand whether the reopening of different types of locales poses a threat of wide epidemic transmission. In this paper, by establishing an epidemiological model based on mobile network data, combining the data handed by the Safegraph website, and taking into account the crowd inflow characteristics and the changes of susceptible and latent populations, the trends of the number of crowd visits and the number of epidemic infections at different functional points of interest after the perpetration of continuing strategies were simulated. The model was also validated with daily new cases in ten metropolitan areas in the United States from March to May 2020, and the results showed that the model fitted the evolutionary trend of realistic data more accurately. Further, the points of interest were classified into risk levels, and the corresponding reopening minimum standard prevention and control measures were proposed to be implemented according to different risk levels. The results showed that restaurants and gyms became high-risk points of interest after the perpetration of the continuing strategy, especially the general dine-in restaurants were at higher risk levels. Religious exertion centers were the points of interest with the loftiest average infection rates after the perpetration of the continuing strategy. Points of interest such as convenience stores, large shopping malls, and pharmacies were at a lower risk for outbreak impact after the continuing strategy was enforced. Based on this, continuing forestallment and control strategies for different functional points of interest are proposed to provide decision support for the development of precise forestallment and control measures for different spots.

Open Access PDF

Concepts Keywords
Covid Based
Malls Continuing
Reopening Control
Restaurants Covid


Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19
disease MESH infections
drug DRUGBANK Pentaerythritol tetranitrate
disease IDO infection
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease MESH emergency
disease VO population
disease VO effective
disease IDO process
disease MESH infectious diseases
disease MESH Pneumonia
disease VO efficient
disease MESH malaria
pathway KEGG Malaria
drug DRUGBANK Serine
drug DRUGBANK Medical air
disease MESH water quality
disease IDO blood
disease IDO infectivity
disease VO effectiveness
disease VO time
disease IDO contact tracing
disease IDO susceptible population
disease IDO infected population
disease IDO site
drug DRUGBANK Methionine
disease VO vaccinated
drug DRUGBANK Trestolone
disease IDO production
drug DRUGBANK Etoperidone
disease MESH death
disease MESH seizure
disease VO USA

Original Article

(Visited 1 times, 1 visits today)

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *