Capturing COVID-19 spread and interplay with multi-hop contact tracing intervention.

Publication date: Jul 13, 2023

A preemptive multi-hop contact tracing scheme that tracks not only the direct contacts of those who tested positive for COVID-19, but also secondary or tertiary contacts has been proposed and deployed in practice with some success. We propose a mathematical methodology for evaluating this preemptive contact tracing strategy that combines the contact tracing dynamics and the virus transmission mechanism in a single framework using microscopic Markov Chain approach (MMCA). We perform Monte Carlo (MC) simulations to validate our model and show that the output of our model provides a reasonable match with the result of MC simulations. Utilizing the formulation under a human contact network generated from real-world data, we show that the cost-benefit tradeoff can be significantly enhanced through an implementation of the multi-hop contact tracing as compared to traditional contact tracing. We further shed light on the mechanisms behind the effectiveness of the multi-hop testing strategy using the framework. We show that our mathematical framework allows significantly faster computation of key attributes for multi-hop contact tracing as compared to MC simulations. This in turn enables the investigation of these attributes for large contact networks, and constitutes a significant strength of our approach as the contact networks that arise in practice are typically large.

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Concepts Keywords
Light Attributes
Markov Compared
Match Contact
Mathematical Contacts
Virus Covid


Type Source Name
disease MESH COVID-19
disease IDO contact tracing
disease IDO intervention
drug DRUGBANK Spinosad
disease VO effectiveness
disease VO effective
disease VO efficient
disease IDO history
disease IDO process
pathway REACTOME Reproduction
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease MESH infectious diseases
disease VO time
disease MESH infections
disease IDO infection
disease VO dead
disease MESH re infection
disease VO population
drug DRUGBANK Dihydrostreptomycin
disease IDO symptom
drug DRUGBANK Ranitidine
disease VO efficiency
drug DRUGBANK Aspartame
drug DRUGBANK Vildagliptin
drug DRUGBANK Piroxicam
drug DRUGBANK Trestolone
disease MESH death
disease MESH Morbidity
disease VO report
disease VO immunization
disease VO Canada
disease MESH domestic violence
disease MESH emergency

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