Integer time series models for tuberculosis in Africa.

Publication date: Jul 15, 2023

Tuberculosis, an airborne disease, is the deadliest human infectious disease caused by one single agent. The African region is among the most affected and most burdensome area in terms of tuberculosis cases. In this paper, we modeled the number of new cases of tuberculosis for 2000-2021 by integer time series. For each African country, we fitted twenty different models and selected the model that best fitted the data. The twenty models were mostly based on the number of new cases following either the Poisson or negative binomial distribution with the rate parameter allowed to vary linearly or quadratically with respect to year. The best fitted models were used to give predictions for 2022-2031.

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Concepts Keywords
Deadliest Africa
Models African
Quadratically Agent
Tuberculosis Airborne


Type Source Name
disease MESH tuberculosis
pathway KEGG Tuberculosis
disease MESH infectious disease
pathway REACTOME Infectious disease
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease MESH death
disease MESH COVID 19 pandemic
disease MESH AIDS
drug DRUGBANK Methionine
disease MESH viral infections
disease MESH marital status
disease MESH unemployment
disease MESH asthma
pathway KEGG Asthma
disease MESH infections
disease MESH morbidity
disease MESH lung diseases
drug DRUGBANK Tropicamide
drug DRUGBANK BCG vaccine
disease MESH meningitis
drug DRUGBANK Methyl isocyanate
disease MESH pulmonary tuberculosis
drug DRUGBANK Serine
disease MESH Extensively drug resistant tuberculosis

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