Riding high: seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 after 4 pandemic waves in Manitoba, Canada, April 2020-February 2022.

Publication date: Dec 05, 2023

Canada is emerging from the largest SARS-CoV-2 Omicron wave to date, with over 3. 3 million confirmed cases. Unfortunately, PCR confirmed cases illuminate only a small portion of infections in the community and underestimate true disease burden. Population based seroprevalence studies, which measure antibody levels against a virus can more accurately estimate infection rates in the community and identify geographical and epidemiological trends to inform public health responses. The Manitoba COVID-19 Seroprevalence (MCS) study is a population-based cross-sectional study to assess the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies across the province. Residual convenience specimens (n = 14,901) were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid and spike IgG antibodies from April 1, 2020 to February 31, 2022. We estimated the monthly and cumulative prevalence using an exponential decay model, accounting for population demographics, sensitivity/specificity, and antibody waning. This approach generated estimates of natural infection as well as total antibody including vaccine-induced immunity within the community. After four waves of the pandemic, 60. 1% (95%CI-56. 6-63. 7) of Manitobans have generated SARS-CoV-2 antibodies due to natural exposure independent of vaccination. Geographical analysis indicates a large portion of provincial prevalence stems from increased transmission in the Northern (92. 3%) and Southern (71. 8%) regional health authorities. Despite the high mortality rates reported by Manitoba, infection fatality ratios (IFR) peaked at 0. 67% and declined to 0. 20% following the Omicron wave, indicating parity with other national and international jurisdictions. Manitoba has achieved 93. 4% (95%CI- 91. 5-95. 1) total antibody when including vaccination. Our data shows that more than 3 in 5 Manitobans have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 after four waves of the pandemic. This study also identifies key geographical and age specific prevalence rates that have contributed greatly to the overall severity of the pandemic in Manitoba and will inform jurisdictions considering reduction of public health measures.

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Concepts Keywords
February SARS-CoV-2
Manitobans Serology
Monthly Seroprevalence
Pandemic Vaccination
Vaccination

Semantics

Type Source Name
disease VO Canada
disease MESH infections
disease VO population
disease IDO infection
disease MESH COVID-19
disease VO monthly
disease VO vaccine
disease VO vaccination
pathway REACTOME Reproduction
disease IDO blood
drug DRUGBANK Ilex paraguariensis leaf
disease IDO country
disease VO efficient
disease VO time
drug DRUGBANK Coenzyme M
disease MESH aids
disease MESH syndrome
disease VO dose
drug DRUGBANK Ethionamide
disease IDO algorithm
disease IDO history
disease VO immunization
disease IDO symptom
disease MESH seroconversion
disease IDO assay
drug DRUGBANK Ademetionine
disease MESH chronic illness
disease MESH death
disease VO Gap
disease MESH back to work
disease IDO infection prevalence
disease IDO intervention
drug DRUGBANK Vorinostat
drug DRUGBANK Indoleacetic acid
disease VO age

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