Publication date: Jun 25, 2025
Measles incidence has resurged globally after the COVID-19 pandemic. To inform planning in the United States (US), we assess local transmissibility and outbreak risk at present (2024-2025) and in future years (2025-2030) under various vaccination scenarios. The estimated spatiotemporal outbreak risk pattern is consistent with current observations. Projections through 2030 show the reproduction number could exceed 1 – indicating a potential of large outbreaks – within 5 (or 2) years should vaccination coverage decline by 10% (or 50%). These findings can inform outbreak preparedness and highlight the importance of maintaining high vaccination coverage to sustaining measles elimination in the US.
| Concepts | Keywords |
|---|---|
| Covid | air travel |
| Pandemic | measles |
| Vaccination | mobility |
| outbreak risk | |
| reproduction number |
Semantics
| Type | Source | Name |
|---|---|---|
| disease | MESH | measles |
| pathway | KEGG | Measles |
| disease | MESH | COVID-19 pandemic |
| pathway | REACTOME | Reproduction |
| drug | DRUGBANK | Medical air |
Original Article
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